‘These damages exceed the costs that would be necessary to limit global warming to two degrees by a factor of six,’ wrote the research team led by Paul Weidelich from ETH Zurich in the study published in the scientific journal ‘Nature Climate Change’.

For the calculation, the researchers analysed data from the past 40 years from more than 1600 regions on how weather extremes have influenced economic growth. Based on climate models, they calculated how these are likely to affect the economy over the next 26 years.

Poor countries particularly affected

The expected damage varies from region to region. The poorest countries and those least responsible for climate change will be hit the hardest. For the countries with the lowest incomes, the calculated loss of income is 61 per cent higher than for the countries with higher incomes.

The losses are caused, for example, by a decline in agricultural yields as a result of climate change, losses in labour productivity or infrastructure damage due to changes in precipitation patterns.

As the study does not take into account effects such as droughts or rising sea levels, the researchers assume that the total costs of climate change are likely to be significantly higher. Damage caused by storms or forest fires is also not included and could further increase the amount of damage.